When I woke up on Friday morning last week to the news that the British had voted to leave the European Union, I immediately thought of the pained reaction of a British colleague when I asked him about the then pending referendum. The usually cheerful history professor immediately turned pensive and had to search for the right words to express himself.
“It is the Trump phenomenon,” he eventually said, referring to Donald Trump, the U.S. presidential candidate who won the Republican Party’s primaries by fanning fears and resentment, especially of Muslims and Mexicans. As a historian, he is too aware of the role that Europe’s integration has played in spurring harmony in a continent that has triggered two world wars.
The Brexit vote, as it has been known, came weeks after Russia’s track and field team was banned from participating in the Rio Olympics for system-wide doping. The two events don’t have much in common, except that some critics are now wondering whether the British “Exit” voters were on some kind of dope themselves.
In fact, quite a few of them have to be wondering the same. Not long after the results were announced, many took to Twitter to express their regrets. Some said flatly that it was the wrong decision. Some complained that leaders of the exit campaign promised dividends that they subsequently retracted. And some said they voted for exit in protest, but didn’t expect the referendum to pass.
It all says much about democracy, doesn’t it? Too often, it is a government of the ill informed and emotionally susceptible to demagoguery. In the waning days of the campaign, a fervent supporter of the exit vote shot and killed Jo Cox, a rising star in Parliament who campaigned against exit. “My name is death to traitors! Freedom for Britain!” the man is quoted as saying during his arraignment.
He and other advocates of the exit got their wish at the ballot box. However, they are quickly finding out what many-a-newly divorced couple learns the rude way: the unanticipated consequences are often greater than the anticipated. For Nigerians looking for lessons from the Brexit vote, this is it.
The vote also confirms something that has been readily demonstrated over the years: that in seeking to persuade the masses, it is easier to fan their fears than to get them to reason. Expert analysis of the campaign shows that pro-Brexit campaigners could point to specific evils of membership in ways that the anti-exit spokespeople could not counter, despite the evident benefits. That left British voters going to the polls without truly knowing what they were doing.
A common explanation of the vote is that it reflected the backlash of an underclass that is not being lifted by membership in the union. And so the poor and less educated more generally voted to exit, while the rich and better educated voted to stay.
But the economic factor doesn’t quite explain why younger people voted overwhelmingly to stay while older Brits opted in the opposite direction. For the youth, the vision was cosmopolitan, while for the aged it was tradition-bound. It was a matter of identify.
We are talking, after all, of Britain, a country whose union jack was once hoisted in virtually every corner of the globe. It is a country that revels in its traditions, idiosyncrasies and even eccentricities. And it is not a country that is used to being dictated to from a distance — by technocrats in Brussels, the seat of EU’s governance.
On the one wonder hand, Britain is a part of Europe. On the other hand, it is a special case, an island of its own. More than anything else, it is this sense of specialness that has made it culturally challenging for the Brits to accept the changes necessitated by economic integration.
Beyond the loss of sovereignty in decision-making, the hardest adjustment was to the influx of non-British citizens, especially from Eastern Europe. Their growing presence was altering the character of the British society, and for many that was unacceptable.
For all these reasons, Britain has all along been a reluctant partner in the EU enterprise. And there is no further expression of that reluctance than that it retained its pound sterling, while other EU members adopted the Euro as a common currency.
That notwithstanding, Britain has been a magnate for European capital. Although Germany is the largest economy in Europe, it is London that has become EU’s financial capital. According to some reports, it began to rival New York, until the Brexit vote.
The consequence of the vote was immediate and severe. The pound sterling plummeted by 10 per cent in value relative to the dollar, the lowest in 31 years, according to market experts. Though the terms of separation are yet to be negotiated, it is improbable that it would enable London to remain EU’s financial capital. Meanwhile, Britain’s credit rating has been downgraded.
And capital flight is not the only exits from Britain after its decision to exit the EU. Scotland, which voted overwhelmingly against exit, is considering introducing a referendum to part with Britain so as to remain in EU. It is less than two years ago when they rejected a similar referendum. But with the British exit from the EU, the bet is that another referendum for independence will succeed.
Residents of the British territory of Gibraltar are also wondering about their fate. The territory, which is geographically, a part of Spain has been coveted by the latter for years. Britain’s withdrawal from the EU could give Spain the diplomatic muscle to force Britain out of Gibraltar.
Meanwhile, some British citizens are opting for non-British citizenship to enable continued membership in the EU. According to reports, there is a spike in applications for Irish passports, for example.
Even the fervent advocates seem to have lost their fervency. You would think that given that XXXX just got his wish, he would want to see it actualised as rapidly as possible, but he is asking for a slow process. It could already be a case of buyer’s remorse.
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